Sports betting is having a moment. But why stop there? That’s the logic that Polymarket is riding to the bank, which is likely why you may be hearing more about it in the months ahead.
Polymarket, a New York-based venture-backed prediction market platform, recently surpassed $1 billion in trading volume, with a large percentage of that volume hitting the platform within the past month as speculators pile on to bet on the U.S. presidential election and the Paris Olympics. Data from Dune Analytics shows that in July, Polymarket’s cumulative bet volume tallied $1.03 billion, up from $672.94 million in June. During July 2023, for comparison, the platform’s cumulative bet volume was only $283.16 million.
The platform effectively allows users to bet on the news, and as such, calls itself “the world’s largest prediction market.”
It’s now seeing more users and bet volume as news about the election—including Kamala Harris’s ascension as the likely Democratic presidential nominee, and the attempted assassination of likely Republican nominee and former President Donald Trump—has come fast and furious.
And there’s seemingly no end to what users can bet on, with more than 1,000 markets (or categories) that allow users to “buy shares” in certain outcomes—such as a Donald Trump victory in November, or even whether the U.S. government will confirm that aliens exist by the end of the calendar year.
But despite the U.S.-focused categories, Polymarket is actually not available to users in the U.S.—though people are evidently able to find ways to get in on the action. Users also need VPNs and crypto wallets (with USDC) to facilitate any trades.
Polymarket also made headlines this month for hiring Nate Silver, a statistician and journalist, as an advisor. Additionally, the company is augmenting its editorial offerings with a twice-weekly Substack newsletter called The Oracle. Substack users can also embed Polymarket predictions in their own posts, too.
What’s next for Polymarket?
Most recently, Polymarket closed a $70 million Series B funding round in mid-May, which was led by Peter Thiel’s Founder Fund, Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin, and Airbnb’s Joe Gebbia, among others.
Though Polymarket is seeing a surge of interest and trading volume, it is facing regulatory headwinds. Earlier this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) floated a proposal that would usher in new rules for prediction markets and platforms—a list that would include Polymarket, PredictIt, Kalshi, and others. In 2022, Polymarket settled with the CFTC for $1.4 million for “offering off-exchange event-based binary-options contracts and failure to obtain designation as a designated contract market (DCM) or registration as a swap execution facility (SEF),” and also agreed to wind down its markets that were noncompliant in the U.S.
But again, the company is seeing an uptick in users and trading volume, and it’s unlikely that will slow down in the months and weeks leading up to the election in November.