The height of the pandemic years saw millions of Americans moving across the country. And those population shifts in the housing market could have a dramatic impact on the political leanings of several states, which might sway the results of the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
A study from Realtor.com finds that nine states could lean more Democratic in the upcoming election, while 22 could swing more conservative. Five of those are swing states.
The report isn’t exactly scientific. Realor.com concedes it made some assumptions based on the county of origin for home shoppers on Realtor.com. To determine if a state became more or less red or blue, it examined the assumed political leanings of out-of-state shoppers as well as the retention rate of local shoppers. The report also cautions that neither people’s locations nor their political views are fixed (meaning just because they voted one way in the past, that’s not a guarantee they will do so again in 2024). Still, it offers a possible glimpse of how the pandemic housing boom could shift the electoral map.
“As more people move across state lines, their voting habits could have the potential to sway election outcomes, especially in crucial swing states,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com, in a statement. “This dynamic raises important questions about how migration trends could influence the future of American politics this year and beyond.”
Which swing states could be affected by new residents?
Swing states Wisconsin and Nevada could shift more to the blue side in 2024, according to the housing market report. (Biden won Wisconsin by about 20,000 votes in 2020, a less than 1% margin, and took Nevada by about 33,500 votes, a 2.4% margin.)
Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina could become deeper red states, according to the report, which is based on geographic home-shopping trends. (Arizona and Georgia both went for Biden in 2020, with less than 15,000 votes separating him and Trump. North Carolina went to Trump.)
Polling seems to support the data. Harris has a slight lead in Wisconsin and Nevada, per data from Project 538. And Trump is leading in the three red-leaning swing states.
Which swing states are still a toss-up?
The housing market data for two crucial swing states is inconclusive. Both Michigan and Pennsylvania have had mixed-population shifts, which did not signal a clear direction in local voter sentiment. (Harris currently leads Trump in the Project 538 poll in Michigan by the narrowest of margins—47.8% to 47% and in Pennsylvania by just a 0.7% margin.) Biden narrowly won both states in 2020.
Which other states are trending bluer?
Four existing blue populations, Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, and District of Columbia, seem set to trend bluer, according to the report. Meanwhile, three red states—Alaska, Florida and Ohio—also are shifting bluer.
Which other states are trending redder?
Seven states that have previously leaned blue could see a shift to more conservative voting—California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, and Washington State. Another dozen, which were already red states, appear to be becoming even more red: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming.
The shift in red and blue voters is especially noteworthy given how close recent polls have Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. An NBC News poll, released Tuesday, showed the candidates in a dead heat, each with 48% among registered voters.